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04/07/2010
You cannot hide from the National Debt…
but there is a solid way to stay out from under it.
USAGOLD Video RoundTable

Discussion Topic: Real Economic Recovery or Real Problem?
featuring Pete Grant, Jonathan Kosares and George Cooper
Gold climbs as debt fears fuel buying
By Reuters; April 7, 2010
Gold rose to a five-week high in Europe today and held near record levels in euro terms on the back of strong physical demand and as investors, worried by the outlook for the eurozone economy flocked into hard assets. The metal shrugged off hefty gains in the dollar versus the euro, which normally would weigh on gold, as dealers reported good demand for physical stocks of the metal…
"European GDP in Q4 was revised down to 0% today, and the euro’s direction looks to be downwards," said Matthew Turner, an analyst at VM Group. "We are used to American investors buying gold because they think the dollar is going to fall. I guess we may have European investors buying because they think the euro is going to go down. That may be one reason why the euro-weak, gold-strong relationship has happened."
Euro-priced gold hit a record high of €856.32 an ounce…
"Increasing concerns over fiscal deficit levels continue to draw diversification towards hard assets, particularly gold," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
USAGOLD Comment: As of this writing, the euro price of gold has extended its record further, now topping €861/oz even as the dollar-denominated price is probing 3-month highs around $1,150 per ounce, largely, as was our focus in last week’s newsletter, on concerns over escalating sovereign debt.
Crisis could end link between gold and dollar
By Sunil Kumar Singh, EmiratesBusiness24|7; April 1, 2010
"A sovereign debt crisis like the one we have seen in Greece over the past month, kept gold stable as the safe haven buying was offset by a stronger dollar. An escalation of that theme could result in a net rise of gold despite potential dollar strength," says Ole Hansen, Senior Manager for CFD and Listed products, Saxo Bank…
Sentiment among investors remains bullish for 2010 with some asset managers suggesting gold could gain as much as 30 per cent this year, according to Rothschild Private Banking and Trust’s latest observation in its investment weekly.
So, what are the factors working behind the price of gold apart from the dollar? The last decade has shown that while gold is, in many ways, a simple asset (it has no default risk or counterparty risk and no complicated structures underpinning it) the drivers behind demand and the gold price are not that simple. Gold has shown that it can perform strongly when economic growth is buoyant, as it did during the 2003-2007 period, but it can also outperform when the global economy is in recession, the WGC report says.
Gold can outperform when inflation is benign (as it did through much of the past decade), it can outperform in a deflationary environment (as it did in 2008 and early 2009), and it can outperform during an environment of above trend inflation or expected inflation (as it has done more recently). While this doesn’t imply that gold is immune to cycles, it does show resilience across the economic cycle, WGC says…
Many investors and hedge funds are reported to be flocking into gold on fears that deteriorating public finances and ballooning national debt of major economies can undervalue the current monetary setup, said Pradeep Unni, Senior Research Analyst and Trader at Dubai-based Richcomm Global Services.
USAGOLD Comment: To elaborate more on that last point…
How to wash your hands of the national debt…

USAGOLD Comment: David Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General and head of the Government Accountability Office, worries that we are dangerously close to a "tipping point" with respect to our debt that, if exceeded, could lead to sharply higher interest rates and a plummeting dollar. Gold is the classic hedge against just about everything Walker warns about in the interview embedded here. By willfully choosing physical gold instead of conventional dollar-denominated bank deposits and bonds as your primary form of savings, you can effectively "wash your hands" of those shabby debt-ladden risks. Click the image to access the full Wit & Wisdom of Ed Stein.
Gold stands its ground
By TheGoldReport, SeekingAlpha; April 5, 2010
Gold prices continue to climb and John Licata, chief commodity strategist at Blue Phoenix Inc., says he sees reason to be optimistic about gold’s future…
The Gold Report: The price of gold is around $1,100. Last year you were saying the best buying opportunities were in the $850 range. Are you still recommending gold to investors?
John Licata: Yes I am. Wall Street has thrown the kitchen sink at gold, and for all intents and purposes gold could have fallen below $800 per troy ounce with the rally in the U.S. dollar and overall stock market. Yet gold maintained its resiliency and showed it can act independently of foreign exchange movements. That has me very constructive on the outlook for the yellow metal. We’re still holding on to $1,100 — and I continue to maintain $1,375 as my target on gold for the rest of the year. Gold can benefit from increased geopolitical risk…
Gold will rise as more inflationary pressures present themselves. Only 40% of the stimulus package has actually been allocated. There will be a lot more government money allocated to various economies in the middle, and toward the end, of the year. We can see a lot of inflation — and not only here in the United States. Globally, we’re still trying to figure out what’s happening from the sovereign debt perspective. If we keep throwing so much stimulus into reviving economies around the world, then "hyperinflation" is a term that we’ll be really comfortable using in 2011.
Because I mentioned sovereign debt, we have to talk about Greece and how that situation could spill over into Portugal, or perhaps even Italy. Yet we have our own problems here in the U.S., with California perhaps coming up with a default of $20 billion. That’s another catalyst for gold — the fact that sovereign debt issues are being magnified right before our eyes even here at home…
Greenspan defends Fed record
By Joshua Zumbrun, Bloomberg; April 7, 2010
Congress is considering the most sweeping changes to financial regulation in decades, including a proposal by the Obama administration to limit banks’ proprietary trading and provisions allowing for the orderly wind-down of failing financial firms. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested higher capital standards may be more effective than new rules…
Greenspan said the crisis originated from the securitization of subprime mortgages, which were fueled by low long-term interest rates that he said were outside the Fed’s control, and international demand for these securities…
"While, fortunately, much financial innovation is successful, much is not," Greenspan said. "It is not possible in advance to discern the degree of future success of each innovation."
"The next pending crisis will no doubt exhibit a plethora of new assets which have unintended toxic characteristics, which no one has heard of before, and which no one can forecast today," Greenspan said.
USAGOLD Comment: Here’s a valuable insight — in marked contrast to the ever-changing menu of exotic and potentially toxic financial instruments invented to beguile newborn investors and corporate boardrooms alike, everyone has heard of physical gold. It’s been reasonably well understood throughout all of human history, and the more you study it the more you realize, refreshingly, that there are no rude surprises in the form of deadbeat counterparties lurking in the shadows as is the case with all other financial instruments. This unique distinction will continue to give gold it’s competitive edge, propelling it well through the next several millennia as the one investment class no-one should be without.
McEwen — gold is the ultimate currency
By Geoff Candy, Mineweb; April 1, 2010
Speaking on the Mineweb Gold Weekly podcast, Rob McEwen, the CEO of US Gold and the founder and former Chairman of Goldcorp, retains his long-held views on the gold price (he has recently been quoted as suggesting gold will hit $2,000 this year on its way to $5,000). He says that gold is being driven up by the massive amount of debt that’s in place right now and the huge spending programs by the governments of the west.
These countries, he says, are debasing their currencies in an effort to kick start their respective economies and, while this may work in the short term he says, "long and intermediate term we’re going to see the ramifications of this and it will look something like the Weimar Republic of the twenties".
He adds, "First you have to appreciate that gold is [...] the ultimate currency because it can’t be manufactured the way all the paper currencies of the world are, the fiat currencies. The supply of gold can only expand at the rate of annual production and that’s about 1% a year whereas the paper supply is just a question of how many zeros you put in and you can print out as much as you want."
While McEwen admits that other factors, such as demand from Asia have a role to play in boosting the price of the yellow metal, in the end it comes down to money, how people keep it, store it and ensure its value doesn’t diminish.
"August 2007, to me that was the turning point," he says, "that was the first time in probably the last 30 or 40 years that suddenly the entire banking system of the world appeared to be in jeopardy and the question was not of ‘how much do I earn on my money’, it is ‘how do I protect my money’, and gold has served that role over the millennium and it’s about to do it again."
USAGOLD Comment: Feeling a little millennium déjà vu? Speaking of which, you’ll surely remember the "déjà vu" gold price chart that we worked up for you two weeks ago. It depicted a recurrent consolidative wedge pattern that was priming for an imminent breakout. Well, as you’ll see if you take another look, with gold currently trading at $1,150 we have indeed now broken out of that pattern to the upside — and subsequently new record highs are almost begging to follow in the not-to-distant future.
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